Banca MPS (AO) | Hold | Q1 26 results: net profit broadly in line

Research evidence excerpt

Banca MPS (AO) | Hold | Q1 26 results: net profit broadly in line

Banca MPS Hold | Target Price: EUR9.40

Company description Management

Banca MPS successfully acquired Mediobanca in 2025, thus becoming the third Nicola Maione, Chairman

Italian banking group in terms of total assets. Historically focused on retail clients Luigi Lovaglio, CEO

(54% of revenues) and SMEs (30%), it has diversified into Corporate & Investment Andrea Maffezzoni, CFO

Banking, Wealth Management and Consumer credit following the acquisition of Key shareholders

Mediobanca. Through the latter, it holds a 13% stake in insurer Generali (the Free float 59.57%

largest shareholder). Italian Government 4.86%

Delfin 17.53%

Caltagirone 11.45%

Investment case Valuation methodology

Following a decade-long restructuring and derisking We value Banca MPS using a dividend discount model. We use a

programme, Banca MPS is now an investable asset again, with slightly higher COE due to a higher observed beta related to the

large excess capital to be redeployed. group's past hurdles.

The 2026-30 business plan for the integration of Mediobanca is In terms of market multiples, Banca MPS trades at lower P/E and

very ambitious on volume growth (4.3% CAGR in loans and 8.2% P/BV ratios than Italian and European peers. This is partly

CAGR in AUM) and on revenues (4.6% CAGR). On the contrary, justified by a significant excess capital that depresses ROE.

the cost evolution is less ambitious than previously expected. Risks to our rating

EUR2.6bn dividend expected to remain stable in 2026 and Main macro downside risks to our estimates would be a

improve thereafter. Generous EUR 16bn cumulated capital decrease in short-term interest rates impacting the NII and a