摩根大通 | Marissa宏观随笔 - Warsh解读细节（美联储FOMC前瞻）

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US Specialist Sales

16 September 2026

JPMORGAN

JPM | Marissa’s Macro Musings - Warsh the Fine Print (FOMC

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Marissa Gitler

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

The meeting is about the path, not the hike. With a 25bp hike nearly fully priced for the September FOMC, the real signal

is the Dot Plot and the long-run neutral rate. Watch the dots through year-end (penciling in another hike = hawkish; holding

at one for the year = marginally dovish) and any step higher in neutral. The latter tells you the Fed thinks policy still isn’t

restrictive enough. With ~92bp of tightening priced through Oct 2027 (vs. ~29bp just two months ago), a lot of hawkishness

is already in the market, and the ~40% odds of >25bp tightening through October screen somewhat rich.

Interest rate risk has migrated out the curve. This FOMC is now a referendum on term premium, deficits, and Fed

credibility not the next hike. The 30y is priced to react more, the 5y less. That’s where I’ll look for the tell. Macro vol at

the long end is the cleanest read on the 1-day move, and it’s the channel that ultimately drives the equity reaction.

Longer term, equity resilience hinges on the source of inflation, and the asymmetry at the FOMC is skewed against

stocks. This is a supply-side shock that demand-side tools can't fix, except by crushing demand. So equities look complacent

(<3% off highs, propped up by the AI narrative) heading into a no-win setup. "Behind the curve" hawkishness reads poorly,

and so does eventual demand destruction. It's hard for the FOMC alone to be a bullish signal, but a genuine calming in

macro vol is the thing that hands the tape back to the AI narrative.

Plenty to digest this afternoon. The FOMC meeting could serve as a helpful clearing event or tip the market into a more

problematic spiral.

I will state it plainly, how to interpet this meeting is not easy.

Objectively, the equity market is far less worried about 1–3 hikes than it is about (1) the Fed not doing enough, (2) longerdated yields spiraling, and (3) a more aggressive hike cycle. That’s why Warsh’s messaging at this FOMC is such a focal point.

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