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2026年中期选举系列
研报英文原文证据摘录
2026 MIDTERM ELECTION SERIES – SEPTEMBER 16, 2026
JPM US MARKET INTELLIGENCE
JPMORGAN US MARKET INTELLIGENCE
2026 MIDTERM ELECTION SERIES – SEPTEMBER 16, 2026
QUICK LINKS
SUMMARY
WHAT HAS CHANGED & INTERESTING ARTICLES
ELECTION ODDS
SCENARIOS & TRADE IDEAS
KEY SENATE RACES
KEY HOUSE RACES
THE MONEY
VOTER FRAUD
VOTERS CONCERNS & TOP ISSUES
JPM RESEARCH
SUMMARY
Dubravko tells us that on average, the sitting President’s party has lost ~27 House seats
and ~3 Senate seats over the last 23 midterm cycles (here). If that trend holds, Dems will
take the House, and the GOP will hold the Senate. This aligns with betting markets which
see a 48% chance that the GOP holds the Senate and an 86% chance that Dems take the
House. The economy and affordability screens as the most important issue, complicated by
an unpopular conflict with Iran. Data is as of 9/15/2026.
For an expert view on the Midterms, please listen to the discussion between Bob Cusack
(Exec. Editor, Washington Examiner), Mike Feroli (JPM Chief US Economist), and
Samantha Azzarello (Head, JPM Content Strategy). Their webinar is available here.
NOT A PRODUCT OF RESEARCH
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