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J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

French Telecoms

Buy the dip. Addressing the debates. #1 French political

and macro risks

The two listed French Telcos have enjoyed a blistering few years, with each

delivering >100% returns between Jan’25 and mid’26. That said, emerging

overhangs, twinned with a currently more subdued catalyst pipeline, have seen

both stocks suffer sizeable ~20% corrections from their peaks. With our

fundamental conviction unchanged, we believe this sell-off offers an attractive

buying opportunity. With this in mind, today we are launching a mini-series that

will progressively address key investor debates, and outline why we still expect

both companies to see their share prices double once again over the next few years.

With this first note, we begin by addressing fears linked to intensifying French

political and macro risks. Subsequent reports will focus on earnings momentum,

the future catalyst pipeline, valuation, and finally French consolidation.

French macro fears: (1) Since Jan’25 French equities are “only” +16% vs the

wider Euro index +33%, (2) French equities +1% YTD rank as the worst

performing in Europe, (3) French 10 year government bond yields have spiked to

4.5% - levels last seen back in 2008. This is a full 1pp above Germany, (4) French

debt to GDP 116%. Only Greece and Italy are higher. Euro average 88%, (5) French

GDP growth is amongst the lowest in Europe, (6) Presidential elections don’t kick

off until 18th April 2027. There is material uncertainty around the electoral

outcome, not to mention if and how any new administration will tackle the deficit.

European Telecommunication

Services

Akhil Dattani AC

(44-20) 7134-4725

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Ankur Baheti, CFA

(91-86) 5796-8820

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Specialist Sales contact details:

Scott Silver - Specialist Sales European TMT

(44-20) 7134-0412

#1 Share price contagion: Investors worry that if French equities continue to

underperform, so will Orange and Bouygues. We disagree: (1) Over the last 20

years, telcos have exhibited no discernable correlation with broader markets. Their

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