欧洲天然气：需求与存储追踪

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

16 September 2026

European Natural Gas: Demand &

Storage Tracker

Beware coal prices

Global Commodities Research

Demand picks up over the week...

Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

For the week of September 7-13, total natural gas demand in NWE+UK

averaged 323 Mcm/day, 11% higher than the week before, and 2% lower than

the same period last year, driven by both higher residential (+10% WoW) and

non-residential (+11% WoW) sectors.

We associate the increase in residential demand with the first pickup in cold,

especially in northernmost parts of the region, as the CDDs in the UK averaged

at 5 (compared to 3 the week before) and near 4 (compared to 2 the week before)

in Germany.

Non-residential demand increase was largely driven by a higher gas-for-power

demand across the region, led by countries with limited coal capacities as the

wind output declined by 40% WoW in the region.

Month-to-date in September, demand is averaging 308 Mcm/day, 6% lower

YoY amidst lower residential needs and higher solar and coal generation.

...leading to a slowdown in net injections

During the week, storage injections in the region (NWE+UK) declined by 15%

over the week to142 Mcm/day, tracking below the 168 Mcm/day of net

injections observed last week.

LNG sendouts declined by 9% WoW (-17 Mcm/day) to 166 Mcm/day, and well

below 210 Mcm/day observed during the same period last year. However, this

was largely offset by higher Norwegian flows, which increased by 16 Mcm/day

WoW despite ongoing maintenance, and likely incentivized by high spot prices

(Figures 1 & 2).

As of September 13, storage facilities in NWE+UK were 60% full (30 Bcm),

compared to 74% at the same time last year and the 2022-25 average of 87%.

Storage stands at 60% full in NWE (2025: 76%) and 68% in total EU (2025:

80%).

Figure 1: Norway exports to NWE+UK

Figure 2: NWE+UK LNG send-outs

Mcm/day

Mcm/day, 7-day moving average

400

350

JPMe

350

300

250

200

150

200

100

150

50

100

Range 2022-25

2026

2025

31-Dec

31-Oct

30-Nov

30-Sep

31-Jul

31-Aug

30-Jun

30-Apr

Avg 2022-25

31-May

31-Mar

31-Jan

2026

2026 LNG send-outs (daily)

01-Dec

01-Oct

2025

01-Nov

01-Sep

01-Jul

01-Jun

01-Apr

01-May

01-Mar

01-Jan

01-Feb

0

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