中国地产月度追踪

研报英文原文证据摘录

Equity Research

15 September 2026 | 4:16PM CST

CHINA PROPERTY MONTHLY TRACKER

Aug ASP trajectory unchanged with T1 resilience intact; construction

activities undershot

Yi Wang, CFA

+86(21)2401-8930 |

Goldman Sachs (China) Securities

Company Limited

Shi Xu

Aug ASP decline pace resembled July and June trends in both primary and

secondary markets, of which T1 continued to outperform but at marginally subdued

recovery momentum; 8 out of 70 cities recorded mom positive or flat secondary

price changes in Aug (vs. 8/10/13/16/17 in July/June/May/Apr/Mar) and among

them, 4 cities had achieved 5 consecutive months of positive/flat mom since Mar.

Aug primary sales (vol/val at -15%/-12% yoy) came largely in-line with our

expectation, while construction activities were weaker than expected, echoing

weak land market.

+86(21)2401-8929 |

Goldman Sachs (China) Securities

Company Limited

Zihan Wang

+86(21)2401-8691 |

Goldman Sachs (China) Securities

Company Limited

On the brighter side, Aug secondary sales were in-line with GSe at 2% yoy with

continuous contraction of listing balance, and the NBS newly disclosed secondary

online-registered sales GFA grew 10.6% yoy in 8M26; rents in 50 top cities also

trended up mom in Aug (3rd month in a row); and tracked developers’ landbanking

remained active since July with high-profile land transactions seen in Beijing and

Shenzhen in MTD Sep. On average, our covered stronger SOE developers spent 85%

of their Aug contract sales in land acquisition, which carry c.27% project level GPM,

with 81% exposure to Tier-1 & 2 cities and 70% exposure to Top-10 cities.

Looking into Sep 2026, we expect 1) primary and secondary ASPs to both decline at

a similar pace in Sep, with T1’s recovery momentum extending; 2) yoy declines likely

to persist at current pace for new home sales volume and value, reflecting MTD

weakness; but secondary transaction volume to improve sequentially; 3) yoy declines

to persist for completion and new starts, aligning with uninspiring value-chain

indicators and lackluster broader land market.

What we watch out for: implementation details of the 828 policy by local

…