ADT Inc. (ADT): Communacopia + Technology 2026 — Key Takeaways

研报英文原文证据摘录

Equity Research

10 September 2026 | 12:15PM PDT

ADT Inc. (ADT): Communacopia + Technology 2026 — Key Takeaways

George K. Tong, CFA

+1(415)249-7421 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Alex Lakritz

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Presenter: ADT’s CFO Jeff Likosar presented at the GS Communacopia + Technology

Conference 2026

Sami Nasir, CFA

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Bottom Line: ADT emphasized the resilience of home security demand, noting that

customers tend to reduce discretionary subscriptions before canceling protection

against security, fire, smoke and carbon monoxide risks. The housing environment is

neutral, as lower relocation activity reduces both new-customer shopping and

cancellations, with moves representing the largest source of attrition. ADT is shifting

volume from higher-cost acquisition channels toward direct sales, which carry lower

marginal costs, while the bulk purchase pipeline remains consistent with historical

levels. The company targets 11% attrition by 2030 versus 13% on a TTM basis. ADT

Blu launched on Amazon to target value-conscious customers through lower upfront

pricing, with a more meaningful subscriber growth contribution anticipated next

year. Origin’s Wi-Fi sensing technology is entering beta testing and could support

higher pricing, share gains and services including fall detection and aging-in-place

monitoring. ADT attributed nearly all of its 30% 2026 FCF growth guidance to lower

cash taxes, with tax and refinancing headwinds anticipated next year. The company

continues to target 10%+ FCF growth over time.

Key Takeaways

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Macro resilience reflects offsetting housing effects. ADT considers home

security a relatively defensive peace-of-mind service because customers tend to

reduce discretionary subscriptions before canceling protection against security,

fire, smoke and carbon monoxide risks. Housing weakness pressures new

subscriber acquisition because relocation is a major trigger for consumers to

shop for security systems, leaving ADT to spend more on advertising to reach

customers without an immediate purchase trigger. That said, moves are also the

largest source of cancellations, so lower relocation activity benefits attrition and

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