日本：6月机械订单反弹

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Japan Economic Research

19 August 2026

Japan: Machinery orders rebound

in June

Core domestic private machinery orders rose 9.7% m/m sa in June, beating

expectations (JPM: 7.0%; consensus: 7.8%). This follows a 12.4% decline in May,

and the June rebound appears to be partly supported by sustained capex demand

from AI-related sectors. For 2Q26, core machinery orders rose 0.9%q/q saar,

representing a stabilization after two quarters of near-30% annualized growth. By

contrast, this week’s 2Q26 GDP release implied a 4.6%q/q saar contraction in

business capex, the second consecutive quarterly decline. We think this weakness

partly reflects shortages of capital goods due to the Middle East conflict, rather than

a broad-based deterioration in underlying capex demand. Also, overseas transfers

of patent rights may have weighed on GDP-measured intellectual property

investment, contributing to the decline in overall business capex. Looking ahead,

with business surveys pointing to firm capex plans, we expect business capex to

recover in 2H. The government is also introducing additional tax incentives for

capex from this month, which should further support momentum.

Sector details point to a broad-based increase in manufacturing orders, with

especially large gains in several AI-adjacent categories. Manufacturing orders rose

19.9%m/m sa, led by chemicals (+32.9%) and non-ferrous metals (+225.3%).

Electronics orders rose 29.7%, and were up 75.5%q/q saar in 2Q. Outside of tech,

auto orders increased 6.9% m/m sa. Core orders from non-manufacturing

industries rose 4.5%m/m sa, with notable increases in finance (+17.9%),

communications (+22.3%), and real estate (+253.1%). The continued strength in

non-manufacturing orders suggests capex demand remains resilient amid

structurally tight labor supply. While higher input costs are a headwind, elevated

inflation expectations that keep real interest rates low should provide some buffer

for incremental corporate spending.

Core machinery orders

JPY bn, sa, dashed line is 3mma

600

Non-manufacturers

550

500

450

400

350

Manufacturers

300

15

16

17

Source: CAO, J.P. Morgan

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