*摩根大通亚洲 FTM 2026年8月18日：中国7月国内疲软导致下半年增长修正；中国证券：零售正常化；印度油气：第一季度经验教训；Jentech：更强的含量增长；中国消费：零售遇雨。2026年8月17日星期一

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Asia Pacific Equity Research

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Asia First to Market

18 August 2026

Top Stories

China: July domestic weakness triggers 2H growth revision, China (Tingting Ge)

Fiscal spillover will also affect early 2027

July data disappointed across the board, with retail sales down 0.3%m/m sa and FAI contraction widened

across major components.

Services sales and high-tech investment outperformed, but not enough to offset weakness elsewhere.

| China Securities, China (Peter Zhang)

Retail normalizing, institutional accelerating, tech upcycle favor leading brokers

China brokers enter 2H26 with a more bifurcated setup: Retail-driven revenue lines are normalizing as Ashare ADT and system margin financing ease from recent peaks, while institutional businesses are

accelerating on stronger demand, policy supports and a more diversified business mix. Following CXMT’s

A-share IPO, we expect a technology sector upcycle to bring incremental upside to brokers’ revenues

through IB fees and investment income. Leading brokers with stronger institutional exposure and techfinancing franchises are set to benefit more from the above trends. Against this backdrop, we downgrade

East Money to Neutral and upgrade CITIC Sec-H to OW. Top picks: CICC, Citic Sec.

India Oil and Gas, India (Sanjay Mookim)

Lessons from 1Q; and trends to follow

What did we learn from the 1Q numbers? 1) Most companies delivered strong gas trading profits. Even

though oil is down QoQ, this strength should continue in 2Q, supporting stocks such as GAIL/PLNG. 2) PSU

refiners largely avoided the feared distress through price hikes / tax cuts, gains at the end of the quarter, and

limited inventory revaluations. 1Q implies strong earnings for 2Q, but these stocks remain strong regional

plays for falling oil prices in the medium term (prefer BPCL/IOCL). 3) Gas user companies (City gas) were

…