巴西网络研讨会摘要：2H26 宏观和市场展望

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

17 August 2026

Brazil Webinar Summary

2H26 Macro and Markets Outlook

Replay Available on J.P. Morgan Markets here.

We hosted a webinar to discuss Brazil 2H26. Brazil’s economy is slowing into midnext year, with still elevated inflation leaving limited room for further near-term

rate cuts and a likely pause after one more 25 bps move in September. Equities

screen cheap on 10-year metrics but risk value traps as ex-commodities earnings

remain weak, guidance is soft, and flows have turned negative. Inflation is benign

near term but faces Q4–Q1 pressures from utilities and weather; El Niño and FX

are key risks. Elections inject volatility: the race is competitive, the fiscal drift

persists, and policy credibility remains fragile. Assuming the next administration

will have an incentive to at least signal a plan to partially correct the fiscal

trajectory, our base case is that the Brazilian economy avoids recession with

gradual easing resuming in 2027 (around April), but risks skew towards tighter

financial conditions if the BRL sells off and inflation expectations rise.

1) Brazil Market Setup: The outlook for Brazilian assets has become more

challenging as the economy enters a period of sequential deceleration, corporate

results weaken and election-related uncertainty approaches. Brazil had a strong

July, with MSCI Brazil up 6.5%, supported by its positioning as a natural “anti-AI”

trade and a more favorable view on the Fed following softer inflation readings.

However, markets have been unusually range-bound since mid-April, with the

BRL trading around 5.00–5.10 and the Bovespa around 170–180k, despite the

upcoming election representing a major volatility event. Historically, Brazil tends

to underperform in the six months preceding elections, but recent investor

conversations suggest some complacency around the political race, with several

foreign investors viewing a Lula victory as largely priced in. At the same time,

Brazil’s relative attractiveness has weakened versus other LatAm markets, where

stronger growth, earnings and reform prospects have supported a change in relative

preference.

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