2Q26 - 基于小幅改进的好季度

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

17 August 2026

XP

2Q26 - A Good Quarter Built on Small Improvements

XP just reported GAAP earnings of R$1,384mn, up 5% Y-o-Y (or +8% EPS).

Results were 2% above JPMe and company-provided consensus of R$1,3511,355mn. In fact, while revenue mix impacts it, EBT was 5% higher vs JPMe, while

the effective tax rate rose to 12% from ~7% last quarter and JPMe. We also

welcome OCI flat this quarter considering rates volatility in Brazil. Overall we see

good trends. NPS rebounded to 66 (vs 61 in 1Q26) and net new money jumped to

R$28bn (vs R$14bn) mostly helped by wholesale recovering from negative

territory to ~R$8bn. BTG had better WuM, up 3% Q-o-Q, though with revenues

down -4%. Meanwhile, retail NNM was flattish at ~R$20bn, in line with previous

quarters and soft guidance. True, on the negative side AUC grew very modest 0.4%

Q-o-Q mostly impacted by equities AUC shrinking -7% Q-o-Q (although not much

different vs Ibov -8%). On P&L, revenues grew 10% Y-o-Y to R$4.9bn, with

notable improvement on fixed income (+10% Q-o-Q) likely as a result of lower

MTM this quarter. Investment banking was also not as bad as some of the peers’

performance this quarter would imply, with IB revenues up 3% Q-o-Q. Costs were

a nice surprise, with better COSR (-1.5% Q-o-Q) and somewhat behaved SG&A

(+2% Q-o-Q) allowing a ~200bps EBT margin expansion to 32% - headcount

however continues to rise up ~200 Q-o-Q or ~400 YTD . Lastly, the company also

announced cancellation of 11.8mn Class A shares (2.3% of float), cancelled the

previous buyback and opened a new program of up to R$1 billion. The company

has a 20.3% BIS ratio, which remains above the 16–19% level management is

targeting. All in all, a good quarter; with XP trading at 6.9x 27E P/E, the name

remains a cheap optionality on Brazilian elections and rates.

Latin American Financials

Overweight

Small revenue miss - 1H26 tracking up 8% Y-o-Y. Gross revenues came in

at R$5.1bn, up 8% Y-o-Y and 2% below JPMe. Retail revenues grew 8% Y-o-Y

to R$3.9bn, 1% below JPMe, with retail yield down to 1.20% vs 1.25% in

2Q25. Equities recovered, up 11% Y-o-Y, while fixed income remained the

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