拉美水泥数据点：墨西哥：6月销量环比 -12.7%（同比 -3.2%），远低于预期；今年首次同比减速

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

17 August 2026

Latam Cement Data Points

MX: June Vols -12.7% m/m (-3.2% y/y), Well Below

Expectations; First y/y Deceleration of the Year

June cement vols disappointed, falling -12.7% m/m (-3.2% y/y) — below both

our estimate and the historical average of -1.4%. The scale of the decline points

to softer underlying demand; however, the quarterly picture remains more

constructive: 2Q vols still came in ahead of last quarter (+3.7% q/q) and above

2Q25 (+2.2% y/y). Notably, June’s -3.2% y/y figure represents the first y/y

deceleration of the year, breaking a run of positive momentum that had held since

August 2025. Zooming out, YTD vols are up +3.4% y/y — down from May’s

+4.8%. Despite the weaker than expected June results, we continue to expect an

acceleration in demand trends as we move through 2H and forecast industry

cement vols to be +mid-SD% for the full year. At the company level, we expect

Cemex’s Mexican cement vols to grow +5.5% y/y (vs. -8% in FY25), driven

largely by stronger infrastructure investment — the government housing initiative,

rural road projects, works tied to the 2026 World Cup, and rail projects; for GCC,

we see vols +4.5% in Mexico, supported by the same push in government housing

and ongoing infrastructure execution, which should provide both stability and

incremental volume gains through the year.

Americas Construction Materials

Adrian E Huerta AC

(52-81) 8152-8720

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

Garrett Greenblatt

(1-212) 622-0424

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Cement prices in July increased +0.7% m/m (+3.9% y/y), above our +0.3%

expectation, though moderating from June’s stronger +1.7% m/m print (+3.8% y/

y). While July’s increase was less pronounced than the June acceleration, the data

extends the positive pricing momentum observed over recent months and suggests

conditions remained constructive as the quarter began. The result provides further

evidence that the weakness seen earlier in the year did not evolve into a broader

deterioration in industry pricing trends, particularly as pricing increasingly occurs

alongside stabilizing demand conditions.…