新预测与目标价

研报英文原文证据摘录

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Idea

August 14, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

CSN Mineracao | Latin America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Carlos De Alba

Equity Analyst

New Estimates and Price Target

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Henrique Braga

We remain UW the stock with a new mid-2027 price target of R

$4.2/sh (vs. R$4.4/sh previously)

We are updating our estimates to reflect 2Q26 results. We also are marking-tomarket our commodity prices and updating our FX assumptions. We now forecast

EBITDA of R$821m in 3Q26 (-30% vs. our previous forecast), R$4,274m in 2026 (9%), R$5,507m in 2027 (-4%), and R$8,879m in 2028 (-3%). Our normalized EPS

estimates are R$0.01 in 3Q26, R$0.10 in 2026, R$0.08 in 2027, and R$0.53 in 2028.

Research Associate

CSN Mineracao (CMIN3.SA, CMIN3 BZ)

Latin America Metals & Mining | Brazil

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 13, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Investment Thesis: We see a high execution risk regarding CMIN growth projects,

Fiscal Year Ending

namely P15, and negative FCF in light of elevated capex disbursements and

EPS (R$)**

Prior EPS (R$)**

P/E

EPS (R$)§

Div yld (%)

prepayment agreements which drag working capital. The stock is trading above its

historical average EV/EBITDA multiple.

Valuation Methodology: Our mid-2027 price target is derived using an EV/EBITDA

multiple approach at a target multiple of 4.5x, in line with the historical average, on

our 2H27-1H28e EBITDA.

Underweight

No Rating

R$4.20

R$5.49

R$29,659

R$6.37-4.08

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

0.30

17.2

0.25

8.1

0.10

0.13

55.3

0.29

0.7

0.08

0.09

67.7

0.27

0.9

0.53

0.56

10.4

0.22

5.4

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

…