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Idea

August 16, 2026 10:00 AM GMT

Machinery & Construction | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Angel Castillo

Equity Analyst

Weekly Market Pulse

Stefan Diaz, CFA

Equity Analyst

Construction backlogs and confidence lower; Construction

inflation growth moderating vs. June levels; Aggregates PPI up

YoY; US Ag AEM signals improving demand; ACT increases 2027

class 8 builds to 315k, or +15% YoY; Jul PPI ex-food and energy

+0.2% MoM (vs +0.3% cons)

Oliver Jiang

Research Associate

Esther O Osinaiya

Research Associate

Machinery & Construction

North America

Industry View

Attractive

Construction: The Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction

Backlog Indicator dropped -0.8 MoM in July to 8.0 months, the weakest reading

since January and also -0.8 months lower YoY. The pullback was broad, with backlog

shrinking across every sector, region, and size bucket in the month; with the South

being the only region running ahead of year ago levels. Contractors with data center

projects reported 11.4 months of backlog, well ahead of the 7.5 months averaged by

the participants without exposure. Smaller firms continue to see the most pressure,

where backlog for companies generating $30M to $50M in revenue slipped to its

lowest since March 2020 at 7.0 months, while contractors with >$100M in revenue

averaged 12.1 months of backlog ( Exhibit 30 ). ABC's Construction Confidence

Index, sales and staffing expectations both eased in July, while profit margin

sentiment firmed. The sales reading fell -2.4pts MoM to 61.2, staffing slipped -0.4pts

to 62.3, and profit margins rose +0.3pts to 52.7. All three categories held above the

expansion level of 50 ( Exhibit 34 ). The Bureau of Labor Statistics Inputs to

nonresidential construction PPI was flat MoM and +7.1% YoY and construction

rental equipment PPI fell -0.1% MoM and grew +2.1% YoY ( Exhibit 50 ).

Aggregates: Mortgage applications increased 3.6% WoW, according to data from

the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Joel Kan, MBA's VP and Deputy Chief

Economist, noted: "After five consecutive weeks of increases, mortgage rates

…