联想控股（3396.HK）：预计2026年上半年联想控股投资收益将抵消联想亏损

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14 Aug 2026 13:19:38 ET │ 16 pages

Legend Holdings (3396.HK)

Expect Legend’s Profit from Investments to Offset the Loss from

Lenovo in 1H26E

CITI'S TAKE

We update our Legend model on the back of Lenovo’s actual 1QFY26/27

results and Legend’s positive profit alert issued in early-Aug. Lenovo’s

1QFY26/27 strong broad-based beat reinforced its structural AI-driven

growth narrative. Moreover, we expect Legend’s Industrial Incubations and

Investments to contribute to >Rmb1.8bn profit to Legend in 1H26E, likely

driven by gains from IPOs of Zhipu and SJ Semiconductor. Reflecting the

latest market values of Legend’s listed investments and FX, we raise our TP

from HK$17.0 to HK$22.6, still at a 72% target NAV discount (1 S.D. below

historical mean). Maintain Buy. Along with this report, we update our bear

case scenario to take into account the potential dilutive impact from

Lenovo’s CBs and warrants that could reduce Legend’s effective

shareholding from ~32% to ~25%. This could prompt Legend to spend at

least ~HK$25.4bn to acquire Lenovo shares from open market for it to

remain a controlling shareholder.

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Lenovo 1QFY26/27 Results Beat — Lenovo recently reported a 1QFY26/27 net loss

of US$609m (vs. a 1QFY25/26 net profit of US$505m), attributable to the

substantial US$1.7bn fair value loss from warrants reflecting Levono’s share price

hike during the reporting period. The print was a strong broad-based beat vs. Citi

prior forecast and consensus, underpinned by impressive ISG growth and sustained

IDG leadership. We estimate this to translate to a ~Rmb189m loss contribution to

Legend in CY1H26E.

Price Performance

(RIC: 3396.HK, BB: 3396 HK)

Buy

Price (14 Aug 26 16:10)

HK$19.00

Target price

HK$22.60↑

from HK$17.00

Expected share price return

18.9%

Expected dividend yield

2.5%

Expected total return

21.4%

Market Cap

HK$44,768M

US$5,705M

Dilutive Impact from Lenovo CBs and Warrants could Prompt Capital Need — In

our bear case scenario, we assume a full conversion of all Lenovo’s outstanding

convertible bonds and a full exercise of its 1.15bn warrants (both instruments are

very much in-the-money). Our analysis shows that Legend’s ~32.05%-stake in

…