On Holding AG (ONON.N): 2Q Sales Miss, GM Beat; F26 Sales Guidance Lowered (A Big Disappointment)

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11 Aug 2026 07:43:32 ET │ 11 pages

On Holding AG (ONON.N)

2Q Sales Miss, GM Beat; F26 Sales Guidance Lowered (A Big

Disappointment)

CITI'S TAKE

Buy

Price (10 Aug 26 16:00)

US$38.78

Target price

US$60.00

Expected share price return

54.7%

Expected dividend yield

0.0%

Expected total return

54.7%

Market Cap

US$12,927M

2Q EPS of CHF 0.39 were above consensus, driven by GM and below-theline items, including better FX. Total cc sales +21.6% were below

consensus +23.0% cc with EMEA cc sales +20.5% vs consensus

+18.1%, APAC cc sales were +54.7% vs consensus +57.6% and Americas

cc +13.0% vs consensus +16.7%. Mgmt lowered cc sales guidance to grow

in the low 20%s (from at least 23% and vs cons +24.7%), but raised GM

guidance to at least 65.0% (from at least 64.5% vs cons 64.4%), and

reiterated EBITDA margin guidance of 19.5-20.0% vs cons 19.8%). F26

sales guidance was lowered as mgmt deliberately manages wholesale

sell-in to protect full-price integrity in a more promotional environment

and make room for new innovations leading into F27. The 2Q sales miss

and lowering of F26 sales guidance (weak implied 2H guidance) will likely

put significant pressure on the stock today.

Paul Lejuez, CFA, CPAAC

Kimberly Hong

The Qtr — 2Q EPS was CHF 0.39 vs Visible Alpha cons CHF 0.34, based on total

reported sales +13.5% (vs cons +18.0%) and cc sales +21.6% (vs cons +23.0%). Total

DTC sales +26.0% (vs cons +22.1%) with cc sales +34.3%. Total wholesale sales

+4.8% (vs cons +14.9%) with cc sales +12.7%. EMEA cc sales +20.5% (vs cons +18.1%

cc and 1Q +25.6%), Americas cc sales +13.0% (vs cons +17% cc and 1Q +17.1%) and

APAC +54.7% cc (vs cons +57.6% cc and 1Q +61.4%). GM +390bps (vs cons

+243bps) and SG&A $ +18.8% (vs cons +19.9%) resulting in +221bps of SG&A

deleverage. EBIT margin +164bps to 13.2% (vs cons 15.5%). Adj EBITDA of CHF 168M

(vs cons CHF 174M) and EBITDA margin of 19.8% (vs cons 19.7 %). Inventory +12.6%

vs 2Q sales +13.5%.

Tracy Kogan

Brandon Cheatham, CFA

Guidance — F26 cc sales growth guidance was lowered to the low 20%s (from at

least 23% and below cons +25%) with FX expected to be a 200-500bps headwind

…