China Auto Manufacturers: CPCA data—Jul EV domestic penetration surged to 65.1%; ICE/NEV export at 42%/148% YoY

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11 Aug 2026 05:58:04 ET │ 9 pages

China Auto Manufacturers

CPCA data—Jul EV domestic penetration surged to 65.1%; ICE/NEV

export at 42%/148% YoY

CITI'S TAKE

According to CPCA, Jul-26 NEV-PV wholesales came in at 1.45mn units

(+21.3% YoY/-2.8% MoM), overall in-line with CPCA expectation; NEV-PV

retail at 0.95mn units (-3.9% YoY/-5.8% MoM), slightly beating our -9%

MoM forecasts. PV exports slightly beat at 918k units (+87.8% YoY/+4.9%

MoM) in Jul-26, with NEV-PV export volume at 540k units in Jul-26

(+147.8% YoY/+8.1% MoM). NEV export mix increased by +14ppt

YoY/+2ppt MoM to 58.8% in Jul. 7M26 PV export was +75% YoY to

5.17mn units, with 7M26 NEV export +129% YoY to 2.77mn units. CPCA

estimates PV sector inventory destocking at around 130k units in Jul-26,

with 7M26 sector destocking of 640k units (vs destocking of 250k units in

7M25).

Jeff ChungAC

Kyle Wu

Jul-26 sales overview:

(1) Jul-26 CPCA PV Production: 2.22mn units (-1.6% YoY/-4.9% MoM), within which

luxury brand production was -21% YoY and -12% MoM.

(2) Jul-26 CPCA PV Wholesale: 2.25mn units (-0.2% YoY/-4.5% MoM). We estimate

PV destocking around 130k units MoM in Jul, derived from wholesales volume of

2.25mn minus the sum of retail volume (1.46mn) and export volume (918k).

(3) Jul-26 CPCA PV Retail sales: 1.46mn units (-20.9% YoY/-8.8% MoM).

(4) Jul-26 CPCA ICE PV performance: Jul-26 wholesale registered 810k units, -24%

YoY/-8% MoM; Jul-26 retail sales volume at 510k units, -41% YoY/-14% MoM.

(5) Jul-26 CPCA luxury sales: Retail sales came in at 130k units, -27% YoY/-23%

MoM.

(6) NEV PV wholesale: Jul-26 NEV PV wholesale logged 1.45mn units, +21.3% YoY/2.8% MoM. 7M26 NEV PV wholesale reached 8.25mn units (+7.6% YoY). Total Jul-26

NEV penetration reached 64.2%, +11.4ppt YoY/+1.1ppt MoM. Jul-26 BEV PV

wholesale came in at 958k units, +28.6% YoY/-2.9% MoM; PHEV PV (excl. EREV) at

387k units, +14.6% YoY/-4.6% MoM; EREV PV at 100k units, -7.5% YoY/+6.4%

MoM. Jul-26 B-segment BEV wholesale volume was +35% YoY/+1% MoM, and A00

class BEV sales volume was -50% YoY/-15% MoM.

(7) Jul-26 Tesla sales: Domestic wholesale reached 93,579 units (Model Y: 59,836,

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