Tata Steel!: 1Q: EBITDA in-line; NINL expansion approved; India EBITDA to improve in 2Q

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Tata Steel

1Q: EBITDA in-line; NINL expansion

approved; India EBITDA to improve in 2Q

Maintain Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 220.00 INR | Price: 189.69 INR

1Q: EBITDA in line; net debt up INR41bn QoQ

03 August 2026

Tata Steel's 1Q'FY27 consolidated EBITDA of INR93bn (+25% YoY, -6% QoQ) was in line

with BofAe. India EBITDA/t rose 16% QoQ on higher realizations, partly offset by lower

seasonal volumes and higher coking coal costs. Netherlands profitability fell QoQ, mainly

on lower sales volumes from the DSP shutdown. UK's EBITDA loss narrowed QoQ driven

by better steel realizations and lower cost relating to purchased substrate. Net debt

increased by INR41bn QoQ to INR842bn. Maintain Neutral on balanced risk-reward.

Equity

India EBITDA to improve in 2Q; Losses to narrow in UK

Bharat Subramanian >>

Research Analyst

BofAS India

2Q guidance: In India, blended NSR is likely to fall ~INR1,500/t QoQ, with long products

weaker on a monsoon-led construction slowdown while flats stay supported by strong

auto demand. However, higher QoQ volumes should still lift absolute India EBITDA, even

as margins compress. India coking coal consumption cost is set to rise ~US$5/t QoQ. In

the UK, NSR should improve by GBP70–80/t QoQ, though rising substrate costs will limit

the flow-through, even as spreads widen. In the Netherlands, spreads are likely to be

broadly flat with NSR likely to rise ~EUR10/t QoQ, and coking coal cost up ~US$10/t

QoQ. Nonetheless, 2Q EBITDA should improve over 1Q, aided by the DSP's four-week

restart trial from 5th August.

Stock Data

NINL expansion approved

Free Float

The Board approved a 4.8mnt long-products expansion at Neelachal (NINL) for

INR339bn, taking the site to 6.2mnt as Phase 1 of a planned 10mnt build, with

commissioning in ~48 months; the NINL merger should complete by end-FY27.

Management reiterated a value-over-volume strategy in India, targeting ~50% captive

iron ore post-2030 as it expects value to shift from upstream steel towards

downstream. In the Netherlands, the DSP chrome-6 emission issue is largely resolved,

but the DRI/EAF final investment decision will be based on regulatory, funding, market

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