Earnings Tracker: Week 3: The beat goes on, AI spend stays strong, but alpha is fading

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Earnings Tracker

Week 3: The beat goes on, AI spend stays

strong, but alpha is fading

70% of results in: 2Q EPS tracking a 4% beat

03 August 2026

With the busiest week of earnings now behind us, results from 307 S&P 500 companies

representing 70% of index earnings are in the books. Despite mixed reactions to megacap Tech results, underlying fundamentals remain strong. The EPS beat rate is at its

highest level since 2021, with 77% of companies exceeding consensus expectations,

well above the 66% post-week 3 average. 2Q S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking 27% YoY

excluding investment mark-ups at Google and Amazon, a 4% beat vs. consensus at the

start of earnings season and just 1ppt shy of our 28% YoY forecast. Including one-time

gains at Google and Amazon, S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking 45% YoY.

Equity and Quant Strategy

United States

Savita Subramanian

Equity & Quant Strategist

BofAS

Healthy top-line trends despite less help from FX

John Chapman

Equity & Quant Strategist

BofAS

Alpha from beats continues to fade; weak guides hit hard

Companies that beat EPS outperformed by just 10bp on average the next day, down

from 50bp last week. Those that beat both EPS and sales gained 90bp, still well below

the 1.4ppt historical avg. Even with positive reactions to Microsoft and Amazon, the avg.

TMT stock that beat both metrics lagged after reporting (see Exhibit 22). Meanwhile,

misses have been punished more than usual (-3.2ppt vs. -2.5ppt historical avg.), while

below-consensus EPS guides – which have been relatively rare this quarter (see Exhibit

12) – have faced an even steeper penalty (-4.0ppt the next day).

Up next in week 4: 140 S&P 500 companies (15% of index earnings), including

more big Tech (Palantir 8/3, AMD 8/4), Health Care (Merck 8/4, Eli Lilly 8/5) and

Consumer (McDonald’s 8/4). See Exhibit 51 for week 4 earnings calendar.

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are

not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial

resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

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