Retail - Thailand: Uneven recovery in July

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Retail - Thailand

Uneven recovery in July

Industry Overview

Leisure spending improves; Home improvement still weak

03 August 2026

Overall July consumption should improve modestly from June, with sector SSS remaining

in the negative low single-digits. Lower oil prices should help lift consumer sentiment,

with recovery led by leisure-related discretionary spending. We expect a slight

improvement in consumer staples, as the impact of the government's co-payment

scheme on modern trade appears milder than feared. The main weakness should remain

construction material retailers, where SSS should remain soft. We also expect the

narrowing THB-VND exchange rate gap to reduce translation pressure on CRC's Vietnam

food business, alongside an improving consumption backdrop.

Equity

ASEAN | Thailand

Retailing

Consumer staples

Exhibit 1: Recommendation highlights

Ratings and Price Objective of stocks

We expect July SSS to remain broadly in line with June at slightly positive levels.

Hypermarkets (CPAXT’s B2C-Lotus’s and BJC’s Big C) should remain weak with negative

low single-digit SSS due to continued softness in non-food demand and some impact

from the government's co-payment scheme. Although the co-payment scheme should

support demand from traditional retailers which should benefit CPAXT’s B2B (Makro),

this is likely to be offset by weaker performance in Cambodia and softer HoReCa

demand from lower tourist arrivals. In contrast, smaller grocery formats, including CRC's

Tops supermarkets and CPALL's CVS, should continue to outperform, delivering positive

low single-digit SSS growth supported by stronger domestic mobility and recovering

Chinese tourists offsetting the impact of the co-payment scheme (CPALL).

Sirichai Chalokepunrat ^^^

Research Analyst

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities

Stock

BofA

ticker

Recomm PO (Bt)

CRC

CPALL

CPAXT

GLOBAL

HMPRO

XCRCF

CPBQF

XAADF

XAOPF

HMPDF

Buy

Neutral

27.25

61.47

18.50

7.80

7.58

Source: BofA Global Research estimates

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Consumer discretionary

SSS: Same-store sales

We expect discretionary spending to improve from June, although SSS should remain in

the negative low single-digits.…