Capitec: Growth platform in good shape

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Capitec

Growth platform in good shape

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 5,758 ZAR | Price: 4,714 ZAR

Higher revenue growth and lower capital requirements

03 August 2026

Capitec’s 2026 AGM highlighted three key positives: 1) Business Banking is scaling

faster than expected, lifting our segment NIR forecasts by 12-16% for 2027-29E; 2) the

Capitec name change and segment reorganisation should gradually reduce operational

risk RWAs; and 3) the core retail franchise continues to deliver steady growth,

underpinning our 17% Personal Banking NIR growth forecast for 2027E. Strong client

growth increases our EPS estimates by 0.7-1.1% for 2027-29E. We raise our price

objective by 1.6% from ZAR 5,668 to ZAR5,758, reflecting stronger earnings growth and

lower capital requirements, and reiterate our Buy rating.

Equity

Business Banking biggest growth opportunity in 3Y ahead

Management views Business Banking as Capitec’s biggest growth opportunity over the

next three years, consistent with our thesis. However, client growth exceeded our

expectations, up 30% since February 2026 to 593k by June 2026, with 406k SME clients

(+7%) and 187k entrepreneur accounts (+140%). While entrepreneur account ARPU is

likely materially lower than SME accounts (we assume c.10x lower), the stronger-thanexpected growth across both segments increases our Business Banking NIR forecasts by

12-16% for 2027-29E.

Name change signals efforts to improve capital efficiency

Management indicated that the planned name change from Capitec Bank Holdings to

Capitec Ltd reflects its evolution into a diversified financial services group and better

aligns the capital treatment of banking and non-banking activities. Operational risk

RWAs reduced Capitec’s CAR by c.4ppt in 2025 following Basel III changes, reflecting its

high fee-income base. We believe the reorganisation creates scope, subject to PA

approval, to house certain non-banking activities outside the banking entity, potentially

reducing operational risk RWAs and unlocking an incremental 2-3ppt of capital over time.

Steady growth in core business

Capitec’s June 2026 client metrics show that its Personal Banking growth model remains

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