Chemical beat moves up earnings more than cash

研报英文原文证据摘录

Accessible version

OMV

Chemical beat moves up earnings more

than cash

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 56.00 EUR | Price: 63.15 EUR

Key takeaways

03 August 2026

2Q26 beat (mainly from OMV's chemical affiliate BGI) means we raise our 2026

earnings estimates by >20% but CFFO by only c6%

Equity

Our sub-consensus DPS estimate is unchanged given lagged & diluted cash

conversion of BGI earnings into OMV dividend receipts

Key Changes

(EUR)

Previous

Current

We reiterate our Underperform as our model updates only move our PO from EUR55

to EUR56 - still implying >10% downside

Price Obj.

55.00

56.00

2026E EPS

9.95

10.27

2027E EPS

6.59

6.51

2028E EPS

5.80

5.71

Most of 2Q26 earnings beat does not lift 2026 CFFO up

We recently reinstated coverage on OMV at Underperform with a cautious view on how

fast investors will ascribe more value to OMV’s transformational Chemicals transaction,

which this year turned into a 50%-owned 'BGI' affiliate: So despite BGI’s strong 2Q26,

we believe its dividend payment to OMV this year will enhance OMV's CFFO by only

~10% - limiting any related upside to our unchanged €4.10 DPS estimate - implying a

~6.5% dividend yield already below Big Oil’s average cash returns (see Exhibit 4).

Fresh BGI insights: So near so far

Christopher Kuplent >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Matthew Smith >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

While investors will welcome OMV’s extra disclosure on BGI’s 2Q26 performance, we

believe they will still struggle to crystallise value beyond BGI's book value (accounting for

>50% of OMV’s own market cap), which in our SOTP valuation still leaves >10%

downside to OMV's share price (Exhibit 5). BGI’s $1.8bn 2Q26 EBITDA - if annualised - is

close to its medium-term >$7bn target. But, we believe investors will not extrapolate

from one quarter – considering BGI’s 1H26 EBITDA was only ~$2.5bn. And using OMV’s

net income bridge for BGI in our view leaves its share of pro-forma net income in 1H26

<$0.5bn (vs. OMV’s FY27 expectations for BGI dividend receipts based on >$1bn).

Cian Evans-Cowie >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Fair value more than 10% below share price

Price Objective

56.00 EUR

Date Established

03-Aug-2026

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