Puma SE: A gradual process

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Puma SE

A gradual process

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 26.00 EUR | Price: 27.50 EUR

The conference call brought muted comment…

03 August 2026

The message and the financial targets of Puma’s management have been very

consistent over the last 12 months. However, the transition process of the group is

inevitably gradual and management comments at the 2Q call highlighted an unhelpful

sector context. The organic sales trend should improve sequentially from 2Q (-9%) to 3Q

and even more in 4Q. Yet, the group indicates that consumer demand is more muted in

North America and Europe (a combined<50% of sales) than when the guidance was set.

Thus, the FY cc sales decline should come at the high end of the low to mid-single digit

guided range. And the wide €50m-€150m FY EBIT loss guidance has not been narrowed

although the VA cons and BofAE (€70-75m) are below the guidance midpoint.

Equity

…which are partly consistent with those of adidas

The situation of the two brands is very different given the pre-relaunch profile of Puma

vs the rapid growth of adidas. Yet, Puma also highlights the market’s high

promotionality, notably in lifestyle, and did not reiterate the target of outgrowing the

sector next year while adidas’ guidance calls for a growth step down in 2H26. Moreover,

both brands experience a rise of their DTC exposure, partly voluntarily and partly due to

retail partners’ caution. Lastly, Puma reiterated its estimate that sector growth should

stand in the low to mid-single digits next year. This is consistent with our forecasts, but

this would mark another year of at best 5% growth since the slowdown started in 2023.

U/P rating - the price discounts the upcoming recovery

Estimate changes: we cut our FY26 sales trend from –3.5% to -4.6% given the

company comments, although this is more than offset at the EPS level by i) an opex

reduction moved from -3% to -4% and ii) lower financial charges given the 1H FX gains.

For the ensuing years, we expect a slightly slower ramp up to a mid-single digit organic

sales growth from 2029 (2% EPS cuts). PO: we cut the PO by €1 from €27 to €26,

…