European Metals & Mining Weekly: Postcard from North America. Results wrap: RIO, AAL, GLEN, MT, VAL, EDV +++

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European Metals & Mining Weekly

Postcard from North America. Results

wrap: RIO, AAL, GLEN, MT, VAL, EDV +++

Estimate Change

Marketing feedback from US & Canada

We've been meeting with investors in the US & Canada with our North American

colleague. Key discussion points, debates & feedback: 1) BHP, RIO. (Fairly) recent

downgrade to Neutral on "top down". 2) Copper: High inventories, high prices. Project

analysis - BHP, LUN Vicuña! Demand in focus. 3) Steel: Bullish EU view on TRQ vs. H2

caution on US. 4) Uranium: Contracting cycle about to kick off. 5) Gold: "Afterthought" in

most meetings. (See report: Postcard from North America)

Company Research:

RIO: EBITDA 2% below BofA and NPAT inline. Copper EBITDA was 8% higher than

BofA/cons. 1H payout in line at 50%, DPS $2.11/sh in line with BofA. (See report: RIO)

KIO: H1 EBITDA ZAR10.9bn, -32% YoY, +4% vs BofAe, -3% vs Visible Alpha consensus.

HEPS ZAR13.2, -41% YoY, +5% vs BofAe, inline vs consensus. Net cash ZAR 12.1bn.

Interim dividend ZAR7.90 per share, representing a payout of 60%. (See report: KIO)

AAL: Reported H1 results. EBITDA US$4.0bn, +35% YoY, +8% vs BofAe and +9% vs

Visible Alpha consensus. Dividend US$0.23/sh, a bit light vs. Street at $0.25. Net debt

US$8.2 bn, with leverage now at 1x net debt/EBITDA. (See report: AAL)

GLEN: Glencore is one of our "25 stocks for 2026" and is on our Europe 1 list of top

ideas. Q2 production only. Key commodities: H1 copper 397kt, +15% YoY, -2% vs

company consensus. Coking coal 13.5Mt, -14% YoY, -6% vs cons. (See report: GLEN)

HOC: Q2 production only. Silver production attributable 1.5Moz, -23% YoY, -2% vs

Visible Alpha consensus. Gold production attributable 56.2koz, -2% YoY, inline vs

consensus. Company on track to submit EIA for Royropata project. (See report: HOC)

VAL: 1H26 EBITDA was +9% ahead of consensus (+33% vs BofAe). Key number: interim

dividend of R57 p/s = 70% payout (policy 40%) and +20% ahead of cons. This continues

a streak of surplus cash returns as VAL seems to prioritise returns (See report: VAL)

MT: 2Q26 EBITDA was broadly in-line (1% vs VA Cons, 0% vs BofAe). Key incremental

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