Hensoldt AG Strong execution, conservative guidance assumptions

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Hensoldt AG

Strong execution, conservative guidance

assumptions

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 92.50 EUR | Price: 79.76 EUR

Reiterate Buy. PO unchanged. BofAe EPS +2%.

03 August 2026

We reiterate our Buy rating on Hensoldt following H1'26 results. Our FY’26 revenue and

adj EBIT forecasts increase 2% and our PO is unchanged at €92.5. FY26 guidance was

reiterated across all metrics. While management's revenue guidance implies a

moderation in H2 growth versus the strong H1 delivery, we believe this primarily reflects

lower pass-through revenues and a degree of conservatism rather than any deterioration

in underlying demand. A record backlog of €10.4bn and strong contract pipeline continue

to support growth. Our FY’26 revenue forecast is 3% ahead of guidance.

Equity

Order momentum persists. FY margin expansion on track

Hensoldt delivered another strong quarter at the operational level, with order intake of

€1.33bn (+8% versus company consensus) and revenue of €672m (+4% versus

consensus). The order beat was broad-based across both Sensors and Optronics,

supported by continued momentum in programmes including Eurofighter, TRML-4D,

Knifefish, Pegasus, Puma and Schakal. Q2 adjusted EBITDA margins were down 10bps

YoY as a 130bps decline in Sensors margins offset a further 980bps improvement in

Optronics. Management attributed the softer Sensors profitability to pass-through

revenue mix and ongoing R&D investments, with management expecting both

headwinds to ease in H2.

H2 growth expectations look undemanding

Excluding pass-through revenues, underlying group revenue growth accelerated to c.20%

in Q2 from c.15% in H1. Against this backdrop, Hensoldt's FY26 guidance implies expass-through revenue growth of around 8% in H2, which we view as conservative. While

Optronics growth is expected to moderate from the exceptional >60% growth delivered

in H1 and pass-through revenues become less supportive in H2, we see little evidence of

a slowdown in underlying Sensors demand. Consequently, we continue to forecast

revenue 3% above management's FY revenue guidance, supported by sustained radar

and air-defence momentum and a rapidly expanding order backlog.

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