2Q26 Earnings Takeaways: MRNA, WVE, HCM

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US Biotechnology

2Q26 Earnings Takeaways: MRNA, WVE,

HCM

Price Objective Change

MRNA: Pending INT readout steals focus from financials

Moderna's lowered 2026 expense guidance modestly improves the financial outlook, but

continued topline growth paired with positive clinical data for intismeran is needed to

justify current valuation, in our view (see our Science Day takeaways). Near-term focus is

on the Aug. 5 mFlusiva PDUFA; we expect approval following a unanimous VRBPAC

recommendation (see our thoughts on the meeting). Commentary on intismeran Phase 3

melanoma and propionic acidemia data remain expected in 2H26e. For intismeran, we

continue to look for an RFS HR of 0.6-0.7 or better with supportive DMFS before

assigning broader credit across RCC, NSCLC and bladder cancer (see our melanoma

preview). The norovirus Phase 3 interim did not meet early-success criteria and requires

an additional cohort, removing a nearer-term source of pipeline upside. International

execution should provide some welcome offset though, including an EU mRESVIA

framework for up to 24M doses and new mRESVIA and mNEXSPIKE approvals, but U.S.

COVID demand and 2027 respiratory growth visibility remain uncertain.

31 July 2026

Equity

United States

Biotechnology

Alec W. Stranahan

Research Analyst

BofAS

See additional discussion on HCM,

a summary of model changes, and

abbreviations beginning on page 2

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MRNA: Refinements to model, but outlook remains same

We update our revenue and expense estimates for 2026 to align with updated guidance.

We now have 52% of 2H26 revenues occurring in 3Q (guidance: 55%) with 9% y/y

topline growth for 2026 (guidance: up to 10%). On expenses, we marginally lower our

full-year COGS and R&D which are roughly in-line with the refined guidance. We also

account for the $950M settlement payment (see our thoughts on the settlement here)

which will occur in 3Q. We push back our anticipated norovirus launch to 2029e (from

2028e prior) to account for one more season of recruitment in the phase 3. We also

adjust our peak penetration for intismeran in adjuvant melanoma to 14% (from 10%)

prior reflecting higher pull-through utilization from Keytruda.…