Chinese OEM Competition Monitor Jul-26: Chinese market share growth stays strong; PHEV exports surge, likely front-running the pending tariff

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Equity Research

10 August 2026 | 5:00AM BST

EUROPE AUTOMOBILES

Chinese OEM Competition Monitor Jul-26: Chinese market share growth

stays strong; PHEV exports surge, likely front-running the pending tariff

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July rolling-1-month (R1M) update: Chinese domestic brands’ registrations

in Europe-5 markets* were 58,896 units (20,254 in Jul-25; 70,041 in Jun-26)

and continued to post strong +191% yoy growth, (although decelerating against

unfavorable base effects Exhibit 12). Market share rose to 7.58%, +484bps yoy

(2.74% in Jul-25; 7.20% in Jun-26). On a regional basis, their combined

performance was driven by UK and Spain.

Christian Frenes

On an R3M basis, Chinese domestic brands gained +463bps of share yoy

(7.30% share, accelerating from +442bps in Jun and +439bps in May),

corresponding to a -430bps share loss from mass-market brands in Europe

(Exhibit 1), with all European mass-market cohorts still losing ground.

Robert Triulzi

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European premium brands’ resilience softening: the collective R1M share

loss was -70bps in Jul-26 yoy (Mercedes +4bps, BMW -41bp, Audi -33bps). On

an R3M basis, premiums declined by -71 bps (Jun -49bps; May -24bps). We

think stronger BEV demand (see European Volume Monitor) benefited Chinese

brands, while German BEV ramp-up could reverse premium softness into 2027.

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Supply monitor: Spain emerges as Chinese auto and battery manufacturers’

European gateway, accounting for 46%/58% of their total European production

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volume in 26/27E,recently reinforced by the recent Ford/Geely 66/34 JV.

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NEW - Trade monitor: June data from Chinese customs show PHEV exports up

+263% yoy (+49% mom) to the EU, likely front-running the pending tariff, while a

lower export value per vehicle signals a mix shift toward more affordable PHEVs.

*Europe-5 (Eu5) markets are Germany, UK, France, Italy, and Spain. The combined market

share of Chinese-owned European brands (MG, Volvo Cars, Polestar, Lotus and SWM), would

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