Serco (SRP.L): Model Update

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06 Aug 2026 13:52:27 ET │ 13 pages

Serco (SRP.L)

Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

Buy

Price (06 Aug 26 16:30)

Target price

from £3.71

Expected share price return

Expected dividend yield

Expected total return

Market Cap

We update our forecasts following the 1H26 result. Our 2026E adj. EBIT

moves very marginally from £301m to £302m, broadly in line with

management's unchanged FY26E guide. We increase our TP from £3.71 to

£3.72, in line with the change to our forecasts.

Arthur TrusloveAC

Serco (GBP)

Year to 31 Dec

2024A

2025A

2026E

2027E

2028E

Sales (£M)

4,787.3

4,876.8

5,092.4

5,236.4

5,470.2

Profit Before Tax (£M)

240.4

226.8

252.2

271.4

296.9

Diluted EPS (p)

16.7

16.9

19.2

21.1

23.1

Diluted EPS (Old) (p)

16.7

16.9

18.6

20.4

22.3

PE (x)

15.6

15.4

13.5

12.3

11.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

7.6

7.5

7.1

6.8

6.2

DPS (p)

4.2

4.5

5.2

6.0

6.8

Net Div Yield (%)

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.6