Eli Lilly (LLY.N): Initial thoughts on 2Q26: Incretins again lead the way

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05 Aug 2026 07:17:53 ET │ 11 pages

Eli Lilly (LLY.N)

Initial thoughts on 2Q26: Incretins again lead the way

CITI'S TAKE

Lilly delivered 2Q26 revenues of $23B (+$2.4B vs. VA cons) and non-GAAP

diluted EPS of $8.38/sh (+$1.70/sh), with incretins once again driving the

quarter. Mounjaro ($9.9B; +$1.1B) and Zepbound ($4.9B; +$268M)

reinforce category expansion and Lilly’s volume momentum despite oral

competition and lower realized pricing. Indeed, updated 2026 guidance

now calls for revenue of $85B-$87B (+$2.5B at midpoint) and non-GAAP

diluted EPS of $35.50-$36.50/sh (+$2.77/sh). Foundayo ($98M; -$3M)

remains early in launch, with the more important commercial variables —

broad Medicare access, sampling, and DTC activation — only beginning to

take hold in 3Q. Outside incretins, Verzenio ($1.5B; -$33M) continues to

see effects of the maturing monarchE patient bolus, while Ebglyss

($201M; +$23M) keeps scaling albeit from a modest base. Overall, the

print keeps Lilly’s differentiated growth trajectory intact, with the 2H

setup increasingly tied to volume acceleration following Medicare access

and continued OUS Mounjaro demand. Maintain Buy and $1,600 TP.

Lilly is hosting its 2Q26 EPS call today at 10am ET (dial-in: 877-209-6992;

conference ID: 606589; webcast here).

Buy

Price (04 Aug 26 16:00)

US$1,115.68

Target price

US$1,600.00

Expected share price

43.4%

return

Expected dividend yield

0.6%

Expected total return

44.0%

Market Cap

US$1,050,682M

Geoff Meacham, Ph.D.AC

Jarwei Fang

Nishant Gandhi, Ph.D.

Volume remains the scorecard as Foundayo and Medicare access open the next

leg — We expect key themes on the call to include: 1) Mounjaro and Zepbound

volume durability and whether broad Medicare GLP-1 access beginning 7/1 is

producing the anticipated inflection; 2) Foundayo launch execution across payer

coverage, LillyDirect, sampling, DTC activation, and the mix of GLP-1-naïve patients

versus switches; 3) OUS Mounjaro momentum and whether early generic

semaglutide uptake supports a bifurcated market with limited impact on Lilly’s

trajectory; and 4) upcoming pipeline catalysts, including retatrutide diabetes

…