Eli Lilly (LLY.N): Two more TRIUMPHs strengthen retatrutide‘s best-in-class case

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Eli Lilly (LLY.N): Two more TRIUMPHs strengthen retatrutide‘s best-in-class case

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23 Jul 2026 07:56:38 ET │ 11 pages

Eli Lilly (LLY.N)

Two more TRIUMPHs strengthen retatrutide's best-in-class case

CITI'S TAKE

Buy Lilly announced this morning another two positive phase 3 retatrutide

(triple-G) studies, reinforcing its best-in-class weight-loss potential Price (22 Jul 26 16:00) US$1,163.01

across clinically challenging populations. Following TRIUMPH-1 Target price US$1,600.00

(takeaways here), TRIUMPH-2 and -3 showed robust 80-week efficacy in Expected share price 37.6% patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes and those with severe obesity return

and established cardiovascular disease, respectively. The weight-loss Expected dividend yield 0.6%

results are no longer headline-grabbing given prior retatrutide data, but Expected total return 38.2%

further strengthen its position within Lilly’s expanding cardiometabolic

Market Cap US$1,095,255M portfolio and complete the phase 3 package supporting a planned 1Q27

FDA submission. Mixed T-3 secondary analyses for first MACE-5 and

MACE-3 occurrence may draw scrutiny, though we caution against

overreading an apparently underpowered 1,949-patient study when the Geoff Meacham, Ph.D.AC

~10k-patient T-OUTCOMES trial is designed to resolve cardiovascular +1-404-443-4701

benefit definitively. Robust HbA1c lowering and broad improvements geoffrey.meacham@citi.com

across cardiovascular risk factors further reinforce retatrutide’s

Jarwei Fang

considerable potential breadth and our >$10B peak-sales estimate (BBG

+1-212-816-5127

cons 2035e: $12.3B). Maintain Buy and $1,600 TP. jarwei.fang@citi.com

Nishant Gandhi, Ph.D.

TRIUMPH-2 reinforces efficacy in a harder-to-treat population — In patients with

nishant.gandhi@citi.com