CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Whipsaw in oil prices, TR Sticky Services Inflation in Focus

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CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Whipsaw in oil prices, TR Sticky Services Inflation in Focus

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04 Aug 2026 06:27:46 ET │ 15 pages

CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily

Whipsaw in oil prices, TR Sticky Services Inflation in Focus

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

The whipsaw in oil prices remains the single most important cross-asset +44-20-7986-9757

driver across EM. luis.costa@citi.com

Alexander Rozhetskin ACGlobal Macro – President Trump called off what he described as a major planned

strike on Iran on Monday after Iran's foreign minister signalled that Oman-brokered +44-20-7508-4787

Hormuz negotiations are "in the final stages" (BBC, 03.08.2026). Brent fell ~4.6% to alexander.rozhetskin@citi.com

just over $83/bbl on Monday. However, Hormuz traffic remains at a trickle — only six AC Bhumika Guptasmaller vessels crossed with transponders on Monday — and President Trump told

reporters this is Iran's "last chance…to sign a good document." That said, brent has +44-20-7986-5933

since partially retraced to ca. $86/bbl and without a complete resolution energy bhumika1.gupta@citi.com

prices will continue to whipsaw on headlines. Yesterday we entered a receiver in the AC Nikola ApostolovCZK curve, on the back of some moderation in capital formation (a reality in the

breakdown to the last GDP print) and expectations of a still sub-2% CPI print in July +44-20-7986-6499

(see publication here: CEEMEA Rates Strategy - Receiving CZK 2y2y IRS) nikola.apostolov@citi.com

Katie Kironde ACTurkey – In our view, price developments point to a more challenging inflation

outlook than envisaged by the latest Inflation Report (IR). The broader economic +44-20-7986-3315

repercussions of the Middle East conflict has prompted the CBT not only to raise its katie.kironde@citi.com