Citi‘s Most Read – North America

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Citi‘s Most Read – North America

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Citi's Most Read - North America

July 27 – August 02 04 Aug 2026 06:43:53 ET

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US Economics - FOMC holds, Warsh dovishly points away from hikes

The 9–3 decision to hold rates steady was close to our and market expectations.

The surprise came in Warsh dovishly suggesting that he is watching a “broader

range” of inflation metrics and that markets may have done the work of tightening

conditions without the Fed hiking. Softer jobs and inflation data since June would

have meant that a rate hike at today’s meeting would be awkwardly timed and

hard to explain. The gap between cooling underlying inflation data and the

perception in markets and amongst some Fed officials that an overheating US

economy requires higher interest rates will only be closed by more consistently

dovish data. We continue to expect rate cuts in October, December, and January as

upcoming core inflation data continues to surprise Fed officials to the downside

and the unemployment rate follows its seasonal pattern higher.

Andrew Hollenhorst | Veronica Clark

US Economics Weekly - Dovish data and Fed contradict hawkish market

The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady and Chair Warsh’s dovish comments led to

volatility in markets that had run with a hawkish narrative disconnected from data

and the Fed official consensus. In 2021 and 2022 Fed credibility was damaged

when Fed officials (joined by many economists) sought to dismiss broad-based

demand-driven inflation as “transitory.” Five years later, credibility cannot be

regained by hiking despite most measures of underlying inflation now slowing

toward target. Core PCE is a clear outlier amongst other inflation metrics,