Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Bangkok- BangkokBank Public CompanyBank LimitedPublic(BBL.BK)Company Limited

(BBL.BK)Low valuation, resilient NIM

PRICE TARGET Bt200.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Gordon Growth model, probability-weighted: bull (20%), base (60%) and bear (20%), based ▪We believe BBL has one of the strongest

on our view that risks are balanced given a forecast recovery in GDP and upside skew to credit books given its exposure to top-tier

global forecasts, but a delayed recovery in the Thai tourism industry. We add the sum of the large companies. Thus, risk of higher-than-

PVs of dividends in the forecast and subsequent fade period to a terminal value. Key expected credit charges is limited.

assumptions: CoE 12%, sustainable growth rate 3.8%, sustainable RoE equals CoE. ▪BBL has been a laggard and it is the

cheapest Thai bank in our coverage. We Bt194.94

believe it still has room to benefit from the

Consensus Price Target Distribution Bt120.00 Bt240.00 recovery in the Thai market given its MS PT

meaningful valuation discount vs. peers.Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Consensus Rating Distribution

RISK REWARD CHART 45% Overweight

35% Equal-weight

THB 20% Underweight

Bt249.30Bt249.30(+29.17%)Bt249.30(+29.17%)(+29.17%) MS Rating

240 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Bt193.00Bt193.00Bt193.00 Bt200.00Bt200.00(+3.63%)Bt200.00(+3.63%)(+3.63%)

180 Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Bt132.70Bt132.70(-31.24%)Bt132.70(-31.24%)(-31.24%)

AUG '25 FEB '26 AUG '26 AUG '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE Bt249.30 BASE CASE Bt205.20 BEAR CASE Bt132.70