Bangkok Bank (BBL.BK): 2Q26 miss on op ex due to accrual expenses; optimism on loans or capital return likely fading

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Bangkok Bank (BBL.BK): 2Q26 miss on op ex due to accrual expenses; optimism on loans or capital return likely fading

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21 Jul 2026 12:17:24 ET │ 16 pages

Bangkok Bank (BBL.BK)

2Q26 miss on opex due to accrual expenses; optimism on loans or

capital return likely fading

CITI'S TAKE Neutral

Short-Term View: Downside

Recent market optimism in BBL on (1) loans growth due to investments

Price (21 Jul 26 17:00) Bt200.00 approvals into Thailand, and (2) capital return given FY25 payout ratio

Target price Bt189.00↓ ~42%. However this optimism likely is fading post results given loans

growth inline with peers, and opex driven results miss implying higher from Bt190.00

payout ratio this year should only serve to protect absolute DPS at THB10. Expected share price return -5.5%

We hence open a 30-day short-term negative view, expecting stock to de- Expected dividend yield 5.5%

rate as market digests the misplaced optimism. 2Q26 highlights: NII Expected total return 0.0%

stable qoq as loans growth offset NIM compression, fees flat sequentially Market Cap Bt381,769M

which underperform peers, other non-II supported by FVPL gains but

US$11,611M entering a high base 2H25, opex inflation due to accrual expenses, credit

cost declined due to soft topline. CET1 16.9% with positive OCI gains but

below target 17% level. We cut FY26e DPS forecast and FY26e/27-28e

earnings by 4%/1-3%; revised TP of THB189 implies 0.6x P/B on ~7% LT Yong Hong TanAC

ROE. +65-6657-7873

yong.hong.tan@citi.com

2Q26 in brief — [1]NII 27.8bn -1% qoq driven by NIM 2.42% -7bps qoq with asset

yield -9bps and CoF-3bps. Despite cutting FD rates in 2Q26, higher FD balances

weigh on interest expense, while potential loan restructuring could pressure asset

yields. NIM could likely drift lower from 2Q26 trajectory.