Symrise (SY1G.DE): Revising estimates post 2Q26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Symrise (SY1G.DE): Revising estimates post 2Q26

Goldman Sachs Symrise (SY1G.DE)

Valuation & Risks

Valuation

We are Neutral rated on Symrise with a 12-month price target of €79 (unchanged). Our

price target of €89 is based on an 85%/15% weighting of our fundamental and

M&A-based valuations. Our fundamental valuation is a two-stage DCF assuming a WACC

of 7.9% and a 2.7% terminal growth rate (both unchanged), for a value of €77 per share

(unchanged). The M&A-based valuation of €92 per share (from €88) uses a 13.5x

EV/EBITDA multiple on our 2026 estimates, below recent precedent transactions,

reflecting our view that the business is less attractive to buyers following the erosion of

competitive dynamics as Chinese players have pressured its Aroma Ingredients and Oral

Care businesses.

Risks

Upside risks to our view and price target include:

n A recovery in the global F&B markets incl. pet food as destocking and

shrinkflation headwinds ease. A faster-than-expected return of end-market

demand would support an acceleration in organic sales growth and could see

Symrise re-enter its 5-7% corridor ahead of our Q1-27 expectation.

n A faster-than-expected recovery in Aroma Ingredients driven by an easing of

the competitive dynamics.

n The OneSymrise transformation effort could present upside to our margin

forecasts. We note that Symrise’s procurement centralization efforts could present

upside to gross and net margin forecast.

n Value-accretive M&A that strengthens the portfolio.

Downside risks to our view and price target include:

n A weaker/shallower-than-expected recovery in Pet Food driven by either lower

than expected growth in Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US (c.40% of the

pet food market) or slower than expected growth of the pet population post covid.