Ecopetrol (ECOPETROL.CN): 2Q26 First Take: Adj. EBITDA 9% above consensus

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Ecopetrol (ECOPETROL.CN): 2Q26 First Take: Adj. EBITDA 9% above consensus

Equity Research

3 August 2026 | 8:02PM BRT

Ecopetrol (ECOPETROL.CN): 2Q26 First Take: Adj. EBITDA 9% above

consensus

On August 3rd, after market close, Ecopetrol reported 2Q earnings with an Adj. Bruno Amorim, CFA

+55(11)3371-0764 |

EBITDA of COP 17.7tn, 9% above Bloomberg consensus and 7% above the mid-point bruno.amorim@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

of the company’s guidance (and 3% above GSe).

Guilherme Costa Martins

+55(11)3372-3505 |

What to expect for tomorrow’s earnings call. More than the results themselves, we guilherme.costamartins@gs.com

believe investors will likely focus on the potential changes the newly-elected

Huama Belmontegovernment would implement in Ecopetrol’s strategic plan for the upcoming years. +55(11)3371-6972 |

Recall, the new regime had already demonstrated throughout the presidential huama.belmonte@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

campaign a more favorable stance on oil exploration in Colombia, including

potentially allowing the use of fracking to offset the depletion of oil production in

mature assets. While we acknowledge some limited visibility (as the new government

has not taken office yet), we will seek to better understand during the call i)

prospects for the development of unconventional resources (timing, potential

productivity, etc.), and ii) additional details on capital allocation (including an update

on the proposed acquisition of a controlling stake in Brava).

We remain Neutral rated on EC. While we acknowledge a more favorable regulatory

environment in Colombia, we believe valuation (9% FCFy in 2027E under USD 72/bbl

Brent) already reflects at least part of the potential upsides.

Additional details from today’s earnings: