Indian Oil Corp. (IOC.BO): Updating estimates for 1Q results; Sell

研报英文原文证据摘录

Indian Oil Corp. (IOC.BO): Updating estimates for 1Q results; Sell

Equity Research

4 August 2026 | 1:05PM SGT

We update our FY27E/28E/29E EBITDA estimates by -22%/-2%/-1%, mainly Nikhil Bhandari

+65-6889-2867 |

reducing near-term marketing margins, partially offset by stronger refining margin nikhil.bhandari@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

capture rates based on 1Q results. We lower our FY28E based 12-month target price

Randy Lau

for IOC to Rs105 (prior Rs110), reflecting the slightly lower FY28E earnings estimate +65-6889-2468 | randy.lau@gs.com

and higher marked to market net debt. We continue to value IOC on SOTP basis, Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

based on 5.5x FY28E EV/EBITDA to value the refining, marketing, petchem and

pipeline businesses (assumptions unchanged). We do not view these changes as

material and there is no change to our investment thesis or rating.

What to do with the stock

We remain cautious on Indian oil marketing companies in the current oil price

environment where price risk is skewed to the upside on net. Amongst Indian OMCs,

we see least compelling risk reward for IOC with 61%/25% implied downside in our

bear/base case scenarios and 39% implied upside in our bull case scenario. We

remain below Bloomberg consensus for FY27E EBITDA and broadly maintain our

medium-term assumptions for both marketing margins (assumes normal margins by

FY29E) and refining margins (above mid-cycle margins through FY29E).

Exhibit 1: We estimate IOC’s integrated margin to be near

breakeven at spot oil price

Rs mn IOC quarterly core EBITDA Spot core EBITDA

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

-100,000

-200,000

-300,000

-400,000

-500,000

-600,000

-700,000

-800,000

Source: Company data, Platts, PPAC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment

Research