Pearson (PSON.L): Downgrade to Neutral: Further outperformance likely requires growth acceleration into 2027

研报英文原文证据摘录

Pearson (PSON.L): Downgrade to Neutral: Further outperformance likely requires growth acceleration into 2027

Goldman Sachs Pearson (PSON.L)

driving better-than-expected adj. operating profit margins, and (2) its strong balance

sheet and FCF generation, providing flexibility for greater-than-expected cash returns.

Downside risks exist if Pearson’s organic growth decelerates to 4% or less in 2027 if: (1)

the pace of new contract wins slows in A&Q, and (2) the impact from a more normalised

competitive environment weighs on Virtual Schools enrolment growth.

Exhibit 1: Pearson shares are up +23% YTD, significantly Exhibit 2: ...and it now trades in line with RELX on ~16x

outperforming peers... 12m fwd P/E, despite lower organic revenue and EPS

Pearson and SXMP indexed share price performance, 2026 growth

year-to-date Pearson 12m fwd P/E vs. peers

140 40.0x

130 35.0x

30.0x

25.0x

20.0x

15.0x

10.0x

80 5.0x

70 0.0x

Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26

Pearson SXMP Pearson RELX Wolters Kluwer Informa

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics Source: LSEG Data & Analytics

Exhibit 3: While we expect solid mid-single-digit organic Exhibit 4: We see potential risks to US Higher Education

revenue growth going forward, we do not forecast a growth into H2, as Fall US college enrolments will lap the

further acceleration beyond 5%, which could drive a decline in births in 2008...

re-rating Fall US college enrolment growth vs. US births (18-year lag)

Group organic revenue growth, %

11%

9%

7%

5%

3%

1%

-1%

-3%

-5%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E