JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU): Improving 2027/2028 outlook on stronger JetForward momentum, but remain below consensus

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JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU): Improving 2027/2028 outlook on stronger JetForward momentum, but remain below consensus

Goldman Sachs JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU)

BlueFirst is expected to ramp through 2028, with a run-rate benefit of ~5 points of

RASM growth by late 2028 or 2029. As the JetForward initiatives continue to

mature, they are expected to support mid-single-digit RASM growth and

low-single-digit CASM ex-fuel growth through 2027 and 2028. Management expects

this outlook to drive a return to operating profitability and free cash flow in 2027,

followed by the aforementioned EPS of $1.00+ in 2028. The outlook assumes

continued demand strength, jet fuel cost of ~ $3.00 per gallon, and low- to

mid-single-digit capacity growth.

n Fort Lauderdale update: The company’s Fort Lauderdale expansion continues to go

well, with 2Q unit revenue growth of 11% despite nearly 40% capacity growth. The

build out of Fort Lauderdale will continue in the second half, with all of the

company’s ~4% expected capacity growth driven by new flying out of Fort

Lauderdale, on the way to 150 daily flights this winter. Reaching 150 daily flights will

mark the company’s largest ever schedule at the airport, with management noting

the potential for future growth beyond this new record level of service. Management

noted demand for JetBlue’s product is also evident in the strong loyalty performance

in southern Florida, boosted by the company’s now more relevant schedule to the

area, where TrueBlue enrollments grew 44% and co-brand acquisitions more than

doubled in the South Florida area.

n Pratt & Whitney agreement: JetBlue announced that the company has secured

Pratt & Whitney credits related to its settlement on geared-turbofan (“GTF”) engine

issues with the company through calendar year 2025.