CNH Industrial NV (CNH.N): Self-Help Thesis Still Intact Despite Uninspiring ’27 Ag Commentary

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CNH Industrial NV (CNH.N): Self-Help Thesis Still Intact Despite Uninspiring ’27 Ag Commentary

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04 Aug 2026 04:00:00 ET │ 13 pages

CNH Industrial NV (CNH.N)

Self-Help Thesis Still Intact Despite Uninspiring ’27 Ag Commentary

CITI'S TAKE

We have updated our model following CNH’s 2Q results. We have slightly

raised our 2026E adj. EPS to $0.43 from $0.42, mostly on layering in a 1c

beat to our estimate in 2Q. We have lowered our 2027E and 2028E adj. EPS Buyby 5c and 10c, respectively, primarily on lower ag assumptions. On the call,

CNH noted expectations for 2027 retail demand to be roughly flat y/y, based Price (03 Aug 26 16:00) US$10.80

on MY27 order intake thus far. 2026 should still mark trough earnings for Target price US$13.00↑

CNH even in a flattish ’27 market, in our view, supported by CNH’s ~4%

underproduction of retail demand in 2026 and its self-help initiatives. We from US$12.00

maintain our Buy rating on CNH shares and raise our price target to $13 from Expected share price return 20.4%

$12 on a slightly higher multiple, reflecting our conviction that CNH can Expected dividend yield 2.3%return to earnings growth in ’27.

Expected total return 22.7%

Early ’27 Thoughts — On the call, management suggested that its MY27 intake so Market Cap US$13,391M

far would indicate flattish 2027 industry retail demand. Granted, CNH is still early in

the process, and our understanding is these comments are centered around only

sprayers and planters. CNH reiterated its expectation to underproduce retail

demand by 4% in 2026, concentrated in NA and SA, which should provide an Price Performance

automatic tailwind to top-line in ‘27. CNH is working toward reducing dealer (RIC: CNH.N, BB: CNH US)

inventory by another $400-500mn by year-end, weighted more toward 4Q.