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US Machinery: Machinery Week 2 Earnings Wrap Up
研报英文原文证据摘录
US Machinery: Machinery Week 2 Earnings Wrap Up
US Machinery
31 July 2026 Citi Research
Figure 3. Citi vs ACT US&CAN Class 8 Builds Forecast Figure 4. Citi vs ACT US&CAN Class 5-7 Builds Forecast
Citi ACT Citi ACT
350,000 300,000
300,000 250,000 (Units) (Units)
250,000
200,000 Builds Builds 200,000
8 5-7 150,000
Class 150,000 Class 100,000
100,000
50,000 50,000 US&CAN US&CAN
0 0
2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
Source: Citi Research, ACT Research Source: Citi Research, ACT Research
Ag:
• AGCO lowered its 2026 market outlook for NA small ag, Western Europe
and Latam. We think the reduction in the Latam outlook was well
understood into the print and would note that AGCO's market outlook is
still a bit more constructive vs peers. A weaker Europe outlook should
have a more outsized impact on AGCO relative to CNH and DE, particularly
as we estimate Germany accounts for ~25-30% of AGCO's total sales, a
market in which AGCO noted was ~15% worse than its expectations in 2Q.
Our understanding is that AGCO is planning to underproduce retail
demand by ~15% in LatAm and ~10% in NA for FY26. While we think CNH
is a bit better positioned on inventories vs peers, we see potential for CNH
to guide to a bit more underproduction in 2H26 as well.
• Policy & trade initiatives seem to be driving demand and providing some
price support for soybeans (AgWeb, Jul 28).
Figure 5. AGCO's Updated 2026 Ag Industry Outlook Figure 6. CNH's Latest 2026 Ag Industry Outlook
AGCO's Prior Outlook (Midpoint) AGCO's Updated Outlook (Midpoint) CNH's Latest Outlook (Midpoint)
20.0% 20.0%
%
15.0% 15.0%
YoY 10.0% 7.5%
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