US Machinery: Machinery Week 2 Earnings Wrap Up

Research evidence excerpt

US Machinery: Machinery Week 2 Earnings Wrap Up

US Machinery

31 July 2026 Citi Research

Figure 3. Citi vs ACT US&CAN Class 8 Builds Forecast Figure 4. Citi vs ACT US&CAN Class 5-7 Builds Forecast

Citi ACT Citi ACT

350,000 300,000

300,000 250,000 (Units) (Units)

250,000

200,000 Builds Builds 200,000

8 5-7 150,000

Class 150,000 Class 100,000

100,000

50,000 50,000 US&CAN US&CAN

0 0

2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

Source: Citi Research, ACT Research Source: Citi Research, ACT Research

Ag:

• AGCO lowered its 2026 market outlook for NA small ag, Western Europe

and Latam. We think the reduction in the Latam outlook was well

understood into the print and would note that AGCO's market outlook is

still a bit more constructive vs peers. A weaker Europe outlook should

have a more outsized impact on AGCO relative to CNH and DE, particularly

as we estimate Germany accounts for ~25-30% of AGCO's total sales, a

market in which AGCO noted was ~15% worse than its expectations in 2Q.

Our understanding is that AGCO is planning to underproduce retail

demand by ~15% in LatAm and ~10% in NA for FY26. While we think CNH

is a bit better positioned on inventories vs peers, we see potential for CNH

to guide to a bit more underproduction in 2H26 as well.

• Policy & trade initiatives seem to be driving demand and providing some

price support for soybeans (AgWeb, Jul 28).

Figure 5. AGCO's Updated 2026 Ag Industry Outlook Figure 6. CNH's Latest 2026 Ag Industry Outlook

AGCO's Prior Outlook (Midpoint) AGCO's Updated Outlook (Midpoint) CNH's Latest Outlook (Midpoint)

20.0% 20.0%

%

15.0% 15.0%

YoY 10.0% 7.5%