Nick Scali Limited (NCK.AX): Thoughts ahead of Friday‘s FY26 result

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Nick Scali Limited (NCK.AX): Thoughts ahead of Friday‘s FY26 result

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03 Aug 2026 20:08:29 ET │ 14 pages

Nick Scali Limited (NCK.AX)

Thoughts ahead of Friday's FY26 result

CITI'S TAKE

The focus on Friday’s FY26 result will be whether Consensus has sufficiently

cut FY27 estimates to reflect the deterioration in the Australian housing

market. Neutral

Price (03 Aug 26 16:00) A$16.05

The focus on Friday’s FY26 result will be whether Consensus has sufficiently cut Target price A$14.50

FY27 estimates to reflect the deterioration in the Australian housing market. FactSet

FY27 Consensus NPAT has fallen by -21% over CY26 to $76 million (CitiE: $74.8 Expected share price return -9.7%

million after cutting our forecasts in both May and July) but we think consensus may Expected dividend yield 4.5%

not have cut enough. Current FY27 Consensus forecasts imply a broadly flat FY27 Expected total return -5.2%

NPAT on FY26 forecasts with a deterioration in ANZ offset by improving profitability

in the UK. Any further Australian interest rate rises represent downside to estimates Market Cap A$1,373M

and Citi economists forecast one more 25bp hike in November 2026 due to upside US$961M

inflation risks in H2 from geopolitical conflicts impacting food and transport costs,

the end of fuel excise relief, and ongoing domestic price pressures There will also be

focus on the UK which is seeing a slowdown of its own and we would expect that LFL

written sales orders on refurbished stores to have slowed since the 32% seen in Price Performance

January 2026. The stock has had a reasonable run into the result since late July and

(RIC: NCK.AX, BB: NCK AU)there is a modest level of short interest in the stock.

Sam Teeger AC

+61-2-8225-4319NCK.AU revisions (Y/E Jun) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E