Saia (SAIA.O): SAlA 2Q: Solid 2Q results overshadowed by soft 3Q guide; sell-off seems overdone, add 90-day upside ST view

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Saia (SAIA.O): SAlA 2Q: Solid 2Q results overshadowed by soft 3Q guide; sell-off seems overdone, add 90-day upside ST view

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03 Aug 2026 23:49:02 ET │ 19 pages

Saia (SAIA.O)

SAIA 2Q: Solid 2Q results overshadowed by soft 3Q guide; sell-off

seems overdone, add 90-day upside ST view

CITI'S TAKE

SAIA shares sold-off post-2Q26 results despite beating expectations, Buy

reflecting investor caution on its 3Q guide for 100bps of sequential margin

deterioration, while noting that the volume environment is “not as robust as Short-Term View: Upside

we were hoping”, informing expectation for full-year op. ratio improvement Price (03 Aug 26 16:00) US$360.10

at the low-end of its 100-200bps prior outlook. Mgmt. attributed the Target price US$423.00↓disappointing margin guide to the timing of wage increases, and also

acknowledged “shipment volatility” in response to its recent general rate from US$488.00

increase. Shares are down -10% since reporting last Thursday, and nearly - Expected share price return 17.5%

30% from June highs. We are sympathetic to investor frustration, as Saia’s

Expected dividend yield 0.0%national expansion has halted margin improvement, with sell-side currently

forecasting an 87.0% OR for 2027, meaningfully worse than peer XPO’s Expected total return 17.5%

80.2% and ODFL’s 72.0% estimates. Nevertheless, we see the sell-off as Market Cap US$9,606M

overdone and add SAIA to a 90-day ST view, as we see a path back above

$400/sh given long-term earnings upside potential.

Fundamentals — Saia reported 2Q26 EPS of $3.51, up +31% y-y, beating Citi/Street Price Performance

$3.29/$3.38 targets. It continued to make progress on key metrics, with tons/day

(RIC: SAIA.O, BB: SAIA US)up +8.4% y-y (above our +8.1% est.), and rev/shipment up +12.0% y-y (above our