OPmobility SE (OPM.PA): Updating estimates post 2Q Results: All about 2H margins now. Remains Buy rated with lots priced-in. PT drops to €18

研报英文原文证据摘录

OPmobility SE (OPM.PA): Updating estimates post 2Q Results: All about 2H margins now. Remains Buy rated with lots priced-in. PT drops to €18

OPmobility SE (OPM.PA)

04 August 2026 Citi Research

localisation in Europe (e.g. Chery), Indian market growth, Hyundai Mobis deal ramp and other potential non-auto growth

investments (as yet limited to three-wheelers, Ag, Construction, CVs etc).

Model Update/Estimate Changes — Unlike prior years, the nature of cost recoveries in 2026 means there will be a less

obvious step down in 2H26 for OPMobility than is typcial. We look for 4.9% 2H26 EBIT margins, +20bps yoY and allowing for

FY26 operating profit margins to be +10bps YoY at the group level. Clearly, with 1H26 margins down YoY OPMobility arguably

has more work to do on margin expansion versus peers in 2H26 in order to hit guidance. We think management have

sufficient visibility to deliver on 2026 guidance but shares are clearly likely to be sensitive to any backing up of raw

material/brent prices in the coming months given this messaging. Having already expected a more balanced seasonality in the

group into results, our 2H26/FY26 numbers are little changed with FY26 /27e revenues seen at €10.2bn/ €10.5bn, adj. Op

income at €471m/ €506m (4.6%/4.8% margin) and EPS € 1.44/€ 1.60, on which OPMobility trades on PE 9.1x/8.2x. Overall,

our FY26-28E EPS lifted by 3-4%.

PT Moves to €18 — Acknowledging that a higher dependency on 2H26 to hit the guidance adds an additional element of risk

to shares from here, we reintroduce our "High-Risk" rating for OPMobility, something we think the market has priced in

already with shares pulling back 26% from recent highs this year already. We think the overall strategy remains well