Brazil Agricultural Products: Data Crop: Our Aug’26 Agribusiness Monthly Report

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Brazil Agricultural Products: Data Crop: Our Aug’26 Agribusiness Monthly Report

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03 Aug 2026 21:38:41 ET │ 38 pages

Brazil Agricultural Products

Data Crop: Our Aug’26 Agribusiness Monthly Report

CITI'S TAKE

Gabriel Barra AC

In this report, we cover the Brazilian agribusiness market, discussing +55-11-4009-2223

implications for our coverage in the sector and our outlook for Agribusiness gabriel.barra@citi.com

coverage. See our charts on the sector inside.

Pedro Gama

S&E (Sugar and Ethanol) The outlook for the sugar market remains bullish, driven by +55-21-4009-0431

a tightening global balance and significant weather risks. The market is pricing in a pedro.gama@citi.com

transition from a modest surplus of 0.9 mn tons in 2025/26 to a projected deficit of

1.3 mn tons in 2026/27. This view is reinforced by the Citi commodities team’s

tactically bullish stance. After trading as low as ~US$14.5c/lb in early July, prices

recovered towards c.US$15c/lb, supported by weather disruptions: heavy rains in

Brazil led the sector to increase the days of lost milling, while India's monsoon

remains irregular and significantly below average. In Brazil, domestic ethanol prices

have been pressured by high production and inventories, as demand growth has

been slower than supply expansion. However, the sustained drop in prices has

improved hydrous ethanol's competitiveness against gasoline to a favorable ~60%

ratio, stimulating an ~11% YoY increase in demand in June. This demand is likely to

be further met by the recent temporary approval of the E32 mandate, which should

add c.1bn liters of demand on an annualized basis.

Grains In July, grain prices showed a recovery, with CBOT soybean contracts rising

to ~US$12/bu and corn to ~US$4.5/bu, supported by a recovery in energy markets