US Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment: Earnings so Far...Estimates Up, Stocks Down; Buyers of AMD, TXN, & AMAT

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US Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment: Earnings so Far...Estimates Up, Stocks Down; Buyers of AMD, TXN, & AMAT

US Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment

03 August 2026 Citi Research

Earnings so Far…

Observation #1: Aggregate EPS Revisions Slower for Semis than Semi Caps

Consensus C2026/C2027E EPS estimates for semiconductor stocks increased

9%/6% on average during earnings, led by a 41%/30% EPS increase at INTC and

9%/13% at TXN. For semi capital equipment stocks, consensus C2026/C2027E

EPS increased 10%/11% on average, led by 18%/18% increase at ASML, 10%/15% at

LRCX, and 19%/9% at TER. Estimate revision momentum slowed down for semis

from 1Q 15%/12% and was maintained for semi caps.

Figure 1. C26 and C27 EPS Changes Post Earnings (Local Currency)

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

Source: Citi Research, FactSet

Figure 2. C26 and C27 Sales Changes Post Earnings (Local Currency)

INTC/TSMC/TSLA Capex Outlook All Very Positive for SCE - Intel highlighted

meaningful foundry progress and raised 2026 capex guidance to over $20Bn from

~$18Bn previously, driven primarily by tools with 40% YoY growth. Intel is

aggressively locking in equipment orders, accelerating clean-room buildouts, and

securing key substrate and memory supply. With increased confidence in customer

demand across multiple end markets and a strong advanced packaging backlog,

Intel expects 2027 capex to be significantly higher than 2026, with most

investments directed toward U.S. manufacturing. TSMC, during its Q2 earnings

call, raised 2026 capex again to $60-64Bn from nearly $56Bn, driven by stronger-

than-expected AI demand and higher equipment costs. Given the large

supply/demand gap, management commented that capex over the next three years