Citi‘s Most Read – Pan Asia

研报英文原文证据摘录

Citi‘s Most Read – Pan Asia

We rule out a formal budget revision or an The consumption discussion centered on

increase in the government bond issuance supply-side improvements and services sector

quota this year development

RMB trn Fiscal Policy Space, 26H2 RMB trn Retail Goods and Services Sales, 26H1 %YoY

2.5 25 8

5.9 2.0

0.3 20 22.0 5.3 6

1.5 0.6 15

4 1.0 14.1 2.8 0.6 10 1.6

11.3 1.1 0.5 2 0.6 5

0.0 2.8

Total Restaurants' Others LGB Special LGB CGB 0 Revenue Austerity Reversal Tool General

Goods Services Policy-Financing

26H2 vs. 25H2 Unused Bond Quota from Earlier Years RMB trn, 26H1 %YoY (RHS)

Japan FX - JPY-buying intervention: Hedge against dovish risk at BoJ Governor

Ueda’s press conference

After an apparent JPY-buying intervention overnight the BoJ has just announced it

will leave its policy rate unchanged. The focus of today’s meeting is the press

conference by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, and particularly whether he is able lay

out a roadmap towards a rate hike at the September or October MPM. However,

we think it will be difficult for him to sound more hawkish than market

expectations. Currently, the USDJPY estimate based on our double-decker model

is around ¥163/$. We believe the near-term downside will be limited at around

¥158/$, while upside should grow heavy in the ¥162/$ - ¥163/$ zone.

Osamu Takashima | Daniel Tobon | Brian Levine

Singapore Economics & Strategy - MAS Steepens “Very Slightly” and Keeps

Door Open for More Tightening

Despite downside surprises in 2Q26 core outturns, we believe MAS’s decision to

steepen “very slightly” today implies a greater weight on upside surprise in the

positive output gap and the expected persistence of >2% core inflation prints,

consistent with its broadly defined price stability mandate and historical reaction