Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMLX.O): Favorable setup ahead of avexitide’s phase 3 LUCIDITY topline

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Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMLX.O): Favorable setup ahead of avexitide’s phase 3 LUCIDITY topline

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03 Aug 2026 05:30:00 ET │ 13 pages

Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

(AMLX.O)

Favorable setup ahead of avexitide’s phase 3 LUCIDITY topline

CITI'S TAKE

Avexitide’s LUCIDITY topline (3Q26) in post-bariatric hypoglycemia (PBH) Buy / High Risk

offers an attractive setup, in our view. With no approved therapies and PBH Price (31 Jul 26 16:00) US$20.31

carrying substantial clinical burden, we believe a statistically significant Target price US$26.00↑reduction in Level 2/3 events represents a balanced bar for success (our ADA

endo KOL lunch takeaways here). Importantly, LUCIDITY is ≥90% powered from US$20.00

to detect a 35% improvement over placebo, comfortably below phase 2 Expected share price return 28.0%

PREVENT’s 55% pbo-adj. signal and providing ample room for phase 2-to-

Expected dividend yield 0.0%3 signal compression. A stat sig benefit could support an NDA and potential

2027 launch, while effect size, confidence intervals, and secondary Expected total return 28.0%

endpoint consistency should determine upside magnitude. PREVENT Market Cap US$2,258M

replication would further strengthen the profile but is not necessary for

success. Overall, avexitide’s targeted mechanism, consistent prior activity,

substantial unmet need, and favorable statistical setup support attractive

risk/reward into topline and a $1.4B (2035e BBG cons) opportunity.

Maintain Buy / HR; TP now $26 (from $20). Price Performance

(RIC: AMLX.O, BB: AMLX US)

Stat sig clears the bar for success — With no approved PBH therapies and current

treatment centered on dietary modification and off-label options, a stat sig benefit

would represent an important advance for patients and could support a favorable