Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Zabka Group (ZAB.WA)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Sales growth (%) 14.1 12.5 11.2 11.7

Selling space growth (%) 11.5 10.1 9.3 9.3

Gross margin (%) 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.7

EBITDA margin (%) 13.1 12.8 12.8 12.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Market growth and competition in Poland RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Delivery on mid term targets: store expansion, Polish consumer recovery stronger than

QSR rollout, digital growth and expansion into expected Sales / 35,030

Romania Digital offer uptake is stronger than targeted Revenue 30,434 35,203

Pace of opex increase vs topline growth Better than expected cost savings / franchise (PLN, mn) 31,315

margin control

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 4,493

EBITDA

Consumer recovery is slower than expected 4,384 4,665

(PLN, mn)

Space expansion slower / less profitable than 4,532

100% Europe ex UK expected

Difficulties in franchise recruitment weighing

1.25

on space/ margins EPS

1.14 1.36

Regulation changes to franchise model (PLN)Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 1.23

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 64.1% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1x

4/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 0.2%

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Quintile inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a